Here we go, into one of the most pivotal weeks of the year. You’ll start hearing all types of things about the percentage of teams that go to the playoffs after starting 0-3 or 3-0 etc. And all that’s fine, but let’s see which teams pass the all important eye test. Or as Ronnie Lott told the Saints last year on their way to the Super Bowl, can you “smell greatness”. So apparently many people in the NFL, including the fans, may be on sensory overload. But I digress.
Stealing a term from one of my favorite sports writers, Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area, these are GPS games. What are GPS games? They give a nice barometer of where a team sits on the NFL landscape, so let’s take a look at a few.
The Tampa Bay Bucs are 2-0 heading into a home game against the Steelers, this is really a “show me who you are game.” It is about this time in the NFL season that teams start picking up tendencies and patterns. If Josh Freeman can stay hot, and the Bucs can finish Sunday with a win moving to 3-0, they will be a team to keep an eye on and not nearly the walk-over many suspected. However, the could very well be taken to the woodshed despite the Steelers having a fluid QB situation. The Pittsburgh defense and running game could cause all kinds of problems and expose the currently undefeated Bucs. Keep an eye on Tampa this Sunday.
The Falcons head to the Superdome in New Orleans to take on a Saints team coming off a short week and an emotional win over the 49ers. Now this really is a GPS game for the Falcons. Which team is the real Falcons? The one that couldn’t move the ball and lost to Pittsburgh, or the one that kicked the stuffing out of the Cardinals? We’ll see this week. This is also a battle in the NFC South, meaning if the Falcons have any intention of making a push for the division, it starts in New Orleans.
The New York Giants host the Tennessee Titans, and this is a GPS game for both teams. The Titans just fell at home to the Steelers, a game in which they were favored. The Giants just got Peyton-slapped by the Colts. So which team responds? Can the Titans establish the run? The Colts, the team farthest away from being a run-oriented team, didn’t have a problem. So what will Chris Johnson and company do? Can Eli and his receivers get the timing back? I’m going with the Giants in this one. Playing at home should be a benefit, and the QB situation in Tennessee scares me. Even with Johnson running the rock, I don’t think the Titans have enough. We’ll see at the end of Sunday which team is for real, and which one was just pretending.
Another great game on tap will be the Cowboys and Texans. The Cowboys looking for their first win are in a little bit of a tailspin. While the Texans are feeling good about themselves after taking out the Colts in week one and coming from behind to beat the Redskins in week 2. This battle for Texas has huge implications. The Texans believe this is there year to make some noise in the playoffs, and if the Cowboys have any intention of living up to their Super Bowl expectations, it starts this week in Houston. Dropping to 0-3 won’t be the end of the world, but the seat’s temperature will surly be tuned up on Wade Phillips. Fantasy Alert – The Bears were able to get deep on the Cowboys multiple times in week 2, and with threats like Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones, the Texans will try and expose that secondary some more. So look for another big day from Matt Schaub and his crew.
Quick hits
The battle in the AFC South looks to be for real. After the Texans mounted a comeback against Washington and the Colts completely destroyed the Giants, their next matchup will be a doozy.
Free trip to the playoffs. That’s the motto going around the NFC West. The Niners and Rams are 0-2, and the Seahawks and Cardinals are 1-1, with not just loses this week, but major beat-downs. Plus, the only wins for the Seahawks and Cardinals came against....you guessed it, the Niners and Rams. This will be a fight all year, but right now it doesn’t look like a good fight. Watch for the 49ers to win the division, especially if they can play like they did Monday Night against the Saints.
What is to be made of all the QB changes? Two things. 1) QB play is not nearly as good as it has been in the past and 2) Coaches and organizations are more likely to make a switch because they know their jobs are on the line. From an NFL standpoint it’s pretty tough, 10 QBs that were starters in week 1 are now no longer the starter, or were benched already this season. If QB is the most important position in the NFL, teams aren’t giving these guys much room to make mistakes. From a fantasy standpoint, how much does it suck to have drafted Kevin Kolb, Matt Stafford, Jason Campbell or Vince Young? And with the position in constant flux, I sure hope you headed my advice and secured one of the top 7 QBs in your draft. If not, time to play QB roulette.
Feel free to comment or contact me directly at nfldraftpros@yahoo.com. Until next week.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Heading to Week 2
What a first week of NFL action!!
Allow me a quick second to remind you that I thought the Patriots were flying under the radar. And after a three TD performance from Tom Brady, including two of them to Wes Welker, who answered a lot of questions about his knee, the Patriots are firmly back in the top of the power rankings.
As for the the other game that I touched on that had a lot of questions, the Seattle v SF game. Well, Seattle answered some and the 49ers answered a lot. To bad for the 49ers all the answers were wrong. Now there is in fighting between coaches and players, unnamed sources, late night team meetings, it must seem like bizzaro world in the Bay Area, the 49ers are in shambles and the Raiders seem to be improving.
Speaking quickly of Seattle, I'm not putting all my chips in their basket just yet, but what I am doing is giving Pete Carroll his due. He was fine his first time around in the NFL, I mean, he took his teams to the playoffs. His downfall was having to follow Bill Parcells. So if he can get a running game going, Hasselbeck has shown he still has a little left in the tank, Seattle won't be the pushover many, incuding me, thought they'd be.
Rough start for the Green Bay Packers, not in terms of winning or losing, but on the injury front. Losing Ryan Grant hurts! FANTASY ALERT - If you haven't yet, put in a waiver claim on Brandon Jackson. He won't be Ryan Grant, but he'll be a very solid back, and could revitalize his career. He'll be worth a few starts this year.
Staying in the NFC North, WOW, did the Lions get screwed. Only a team that has as much bad luck as the Lions could something like that happen. Hard to believe you didn't see the highlight or hear the discussion, but Calvin Johnson caught what many thought was the winning TD pass, only to have it waived off because he did not maintain control through the entire catch. Now, by the letter of the rule it was a correct call, but it didn't pass the eye test. Calvin went up, caught the ball, came down with both feet in the endzone, fell on his butt, went to roll over, used the ball to balance himself as he was standing up and then it fell out of his hans. No TD, OUCH! Yes they got the call right, but it's a bad rule. FANTASY ALERT - One thing that did come out of the game, besides Matt Stafford getting another shoulder injury, is that rookie Javid Best is the main man. He didn't get many yards, but he was taking on the Bears defense, and the fantasy value is in the fact that he stayed in near the goal line and put two in the endzone.
Quick Hits
Can we all remind each other that the Jets were 7-7 last year until two playoff teams laid down for them and allowed them to get to 9-7. Yes they had a nice run in the playoffs, but Sanchez's 20 picks need to be remembered. Along with the loss of Thomas Jones and the fact that they didn't improve their wideout position. The Jets had a big target on their back, but why? I guess we forgot who they really were.
Sam Bradford looked like the real deal. Granted it was against the Cardinals, and he still lost, but he did some things in that game that showed he should have a bright future as long as the Rams can build around him.
Pittsburgh squeaked by, but they don't care, they put up the W and are one game closer to seeing Big Ben return.
How 'bout them Texans?!?!? 200+ for Arian Foster was a statement and the win in general was a statement. This could be the year the Texas break through the .500 ceiling and end the year with a winning record and in the playoffs. And the one thing the Texans did do was expose the Colts run defense.
The Colts still can't stop the run. Good news for owners of Peyton Manning because he'll be throwing all year. Bad news for the Colts, making another run may be getting tougher.
Think SD misses Vincent Jackson?
Anyone pass on Chris Johnson with the 1st pick in their fantasy draft? 200+ and 2 TDs in week 1 must have made you shake your head if you did.
I want to thank everyone that sent me bar, restaurant, and overall road trip suggestions. I still haven't chosen where I'm going, so if you got hot spots in your town, let me know. Until next week…….
Allow me a quick second to remind you that I thought the Patriots were flying under the radar. And after a three TD performance from Tom Brady, including two of them to Wes Welker, who answered a lot of questions about his knee, the Patriots are firmly back in the top of the power rankings.
As for the the other game that I touched on that had a lot of questions, the Seattle v SF game. Well, Seattle answered some and the 49ers answered a lot. To bad for the 49ers all the answers were wrong. Now there is in fighting between coaches and players, unnamed sources, late night team meetings, it must seem like bizzaro world in the Bay Area, the 49ers are in shambles and the Raiders seem to be improving.
Speaking quickly of Seattle, I'm not putting all my chips in their basket just yet, but what I am doing is giving Pete Carroll his due. He was fine his first time around in the NFL, I mean, he took his teams to the playoffs. His downfall was having to follow Bill Parcells. So if he can get a running game going, Hasselbeck has shown he still has a little left in the tank, Seattle won't be the pushover many, incuding me, thought they'd be.
Rough start for the Green Bay Packers, not in terms of winning or losing, but on the injury front. Losing Ryan Grant hurts! FANTASY ALERT - If you haven't yet, put in a waiver claim on Brandon Jackson. He won't be Ryan Grant, but he'll be a very solid back, and could revitalize his career. He'll be worth a few starts this year.
Staying in the NFC North, WOW, did the Lions get screwed. Only a team that has as much bad luck as the Lions could something like that happen. Hard to believe you didn't see the highlight or hear the discussion, but Calvin Johnson caught what many thought was the winning TD pass, only to have it waived off because he did not maintain control through the entire catch. Now, by the letter of the rule it was a correct call, but it didn't pass the eye test. Calvin went up, caught the ball, came down with both feet in the endzone, fell on his butt, went to roll over, used the ball to balance himself as he was standing up and then it fell out of his hans. No TD, OUCH! Yes they got the call right, but it's a bad rule. FANTASY ALERT - One thing that did come out of the game, besides Matt Stafford getting another shoulder injury, is that rookie Javid Best is the main man. He didn't get many yards, but he was taking on the Bears defense, and the fantasy value is in the fact that he stayed in near the goal line and put two in the endzone.
Quick Hits
Can we all remind each other that the Jets were 7-7 last year until two playoff teams laid down for them and allowed them to get to 9-7. Yes they had a nice run in the playoffs, but Sanchez's 20 picks need to be remembered. Along with the loss of Thomas Jones and the fact that they didn't improve their wideout position. The Jets had a big target on their back, but why? I guess we forgot who they really were.
Sam Bradford looked like the real deal. Granted it was against the Cardinals, and he still lost, but he did some things in that game that showed he should have a bright future as long as the Rams can build around him.
Pittsburgh squeaked by, but they don't care, they put up the W and are one game closer to seeing Big Ben return.
How 'bout them Texans?!?!? 200+ for Arian Foster was a statement and the win in general was a statement. This could be the year the Texas break through the .500 ceiling and end the year with a winning record and in the playoffs. And the one thing the Texans did do was expose the Colts run defense.
The Colts still can't stop the run. Good news for owners of Peyton Manning because he'll be throwing all year. Bad news for the Colts, making another run may be getting tougher.
Think SD misses Vincent Jackson?
Anyone pass on Chris Johnson with the 1st pick in their fantasy draft? 200+ and 2 TDs in week 1 must have made you shake your head if you did.
I want to thank everyone that sent me bar, restaurant, and overall road trip suggestions. I still haven't chosen where I'm going, so if you got hot spots in your town, let me know. Until next week…….
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Jake "Hurt" Locker
As everyone knows, when Jake Locker's name came up as a possible #1 overall pick for last year's draft (had he entered), I was completely flabbergasted. At no time did I ever see Locker as a #1 worthy type of player. People said, "It's because he's a QB." Fair enough. But after watching today's Nebraska/Washington game, my impression of Locker is "MAJOR DEVELOPMENT PROJECT."
The dude is not a QB. He's an athlete playing QB. When it comes to running with the ball, Locker is in his element. No problemo. But when it comes to passing the ball... OMG, hide the women and children and close your eyes cuz it is UGLY. Much like last year, Locker continues to struggle with reading defenses and throwing accurately. If he wasn't throwing into double coverage today, he was throwing an errant pass that his receiver had little chance of catching.
Locker is a gifted physical specimen with a strong arm. He threw a beautiful 45 yard TD pass to Jermaine Kearse. Problem was, that play accounted for more than half of Locker's aerial output today as he threw for only 71 yards (on 4 of 20 attempts) the entire game. Plus, Locker had all day to throw the TD pass cuz Kearse got behind the secondary and was wide open. Though the stats showed 2 INTs, Locker could've easily had two more.
I'm sure he'll have better days, especially given how poor the Pac-10 conference is (see: Nebraska 52, Cal 31). Nebraska was the test to see how Locker would perform against tougher competition and Jake failed miserably. People like to offer the excuse that Locker's still trying to learn Sarkisian's offense. If that's the case, slap that Nate Davis tag on him right now. Locker's in his SECOND YEAR of Sarkisian's offense. Even guys like Pat Barnes and Kyle Boller were able to adapt to a totally new offense within one spring/offseason.
If I had to make an NFL comparison for Locker, it'd be Kevin O'Connell.
The dude is not a QB. He's an athlete playing QB. When it comes to running with the ball, Locker is in his element. No problemo. But when it comes to passing the ball... OMG, hide the women and children and close your eyes cuz it is UGLY. Much like last year, Locker continues to struggle with reading defenses and throwing accurately. If he wasn't throwing into double coverage today, he was throwing an errant pass that his receiver had little chance of catching.
Locker is a gifted physical specimen with a strong arm. He threw a beautiful 45 yard TD pass to Jermaine Kearse. Problem was, that play accounted for more than half of Locker's aerial output today as he threw for only 71 yards (on 4 of 20 attempts) the entire game. Plus, Locker had all day to throw the TD pass cuz Kearse got behind the secondary and was wide open. Though the stats showed 2 INTs, Locker could've easily had two more.
I'm sure he'll have better days, especially given how poor the Pac-10 conference is (see: Nebraska 52, Cal 31). Nebraska was the test to see how Locker would perform against tougher competition and Jake failed miserably. People like to offer the excuse that Locker's still trying to learn Sarkisian's offense. If that's the case, slap that Nate Davis tag on him right now. Locker's in his SECOND YEAR of Sarkisian's offense. Even guys like Pat Barnes and Kyle Boller were able to adapt to a totally new offense within one spring/offseason.
If I had to make an NFL comparison for Locker, it'd be Kevin O'Connell.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Kicking Off The NFL Season
The first game of the year is in the books and things started out and ended just how the defending champion Saints would have liked. But it was the middle part of the game that I’m sure they’ll not be pleased with. And instead of boring you with the play-by-play let me get right into what stood out to me. First, the Saints were at their best when they had a strong mix of runs and passes. Pierre Thomas was used to wear down the Vikings and the interior of the Saints line neutralized Kevin and Pat Williams. Fantasy owners take notice, Thomas was the workhorse back AND was used at the goal line. The Saints spread the wealth to all the WRs and I’m sure this didn’t make fantasy owners very happy. As for the Vikings, they tried to feed Adrian Peterson as much as they could, and he did put up 87 yards on the ground, but he still needs more touches. And I’m not sure if those touches are going to increase. The Vikings TD can on a drive that was heavy-Favre. Lots of passes including the TD. So was this Brett’s way of saying “we need to pass the ball more.” Perhaps. And if that’s the case it could be a long season for the Vikings because pressure caused 1 INT and a few near misses, not to mention the Vikings only put up 9 points and lost. So the Vikings really need to get back to the drawing board figure out how to get more out of their offense.
Now on to the rest of the league.
Tom Brady was involved in a car accident, but he walked away from it and he should be unaffected for the game against the Bengals. When news broke regarding the accident I’m sure it put every owner of Brady in a fantasy league on the edge of their seat. But it’s not Brady that will be the focus for many fantasy players this Sunday, it will be who he is throwing to. Can Moss continue to put up good numbers or will he be in a bad mood about something? Who’s gonna be the #2 target. The organization can say all they want but the proof will be Sunday afternoon. Is Wes Welker back to 100%, is his clone, Julian Edelman, able to put up similar numbers? Who is going to run the ball? All these fantasy questions will be answered Sunday, but it won’t be easy. The Bengals should put up a pretty good fight, but if you read my column last week you know I’m pretty excited about the Patriots flying under the radar. This is a good first test for them and I would anticipate them opening some eyes in the first week of the season.
On the other coast the 49es travel up to Seattle in a game that has a lot of storyline, the least of which is the outcome of the game. As training camp wound down Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis got into it and had to be pulled into the locker room for a stern talking to by Coach Singletary. Have these two put it behind them? Will missing all of the preseason hurt Crabtree or will he come out like he did last year and put up strong numbers? Just what does Pete Carroll have going on in Seattle? Will he invigorate the Seahawks or fall flat? Again, lots of questions entering the season for both of these teams and it will be interesting to see just how it plays out.
In a game that clearly has very little interest to most, the Denver Broncos travel down to Jacksonville, but I’m very intrigued. The Broncos got off to great start last year and crashed and burned towards the end, so which version of the Broncos will show up this year? The Jags are built to run the ball and playing at home should have a small advantage, so does this mean the Broncos get off to a slow start, or can Kyle Orton manage the game enough for the Broncos to pull out a victory? And in the secondary story line that will interest more people then the actual game, who’s going to be the #2 QB for the Broncos, Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow? And will Tebow get any playing time. Just another little something to check-in on for week one of the NFL season.
And in possibly the game of the week, Phily hosts Green Bay in the start of the Kevin Kolb era. The Packers looked unstoppable on offense in the preseason, will that continue? Can Kevin Kolb utilize the young weapons he has on the outside in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin and succeed, or will the pressure to perform in Phily be too much? And the bigger question for Phily fans, can the defense get some pressure on Rodgers or will he pick them apart and march up and down the field?
Entering week one there are always more questions then answers, and that’s what the next few weeks will do for us, answer questions. In the meantime, at least for the next 48 hours, every team thinks they got a shot to do something special this year, and come January half of them will be disappointed. But it is the journey that is going to be the most exciting part. So enjoy the start of the NFL season, and check back next week where we’ll have more answers to all these questions.
Now on to the rest of the league.
Tom Brady was involved in a car accident, but he walked away from it and he should be unaffected for the game against the Bengals. When news broke regarding the accident I’m sure it put every owner of Brady in a fantasy league on the edge of their seat. But it’s not Brady that will be the focus for many fantasy players this Sunday, it will be who he is throwing to. Can Moss continue to put up good numbers or will he be in a bad mood about something? Who’s gonna be the #2 target. The organization can say all they want but the proof will be Sunday afternoon. Is Wes Welker back to 100%, is his clone, Julian Edelman, able to put up similar numbers? Who is going to run the ball? All these fantasy questions will be answered Sunday, but it won’t be easy. The Bengals should put up a pretty good fight, but if you read my column last week you know I’m pretty excited about the Patriots flying under the radar. This is a good first test for them and I would anticipate them opening some eyes in the first week of the season.
On the other coast the 49es travel up to Seattle in a game that has a lot of storyline, the least of which is the outcome of the game. As training camp wound down Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis got into it and had to be pulled into the locker room for a stern talking to by Coach Singletary. Have these two put it behind them? Will missing all of the preseason hurt Crabtree or will he come out like he did last year and put up strong numbers? Just what does Pete Carroll have going on in Seattle? Will he invigorate the Seahawks or fall flat? Again, lots of questions entering the season for both of these teams and it will be interesting to see just how it plays out.
In a game that clearly has very little interest to most, the Denver Broncos travel down to Jacksonville, but I’m very intrigued. The Broncos got off to great start last year and crashed and burned towards the end, so which version of the Broncos will show up this year? The Jags are built to run the ball and playing at home should have a small advantage, so does this mean the Broncos get off to a slow start, or can Kyle Orton manage the game enough for the Broncos to pull out a victory? And in the secondary story line that will interest more people then the actual game, who’s going to be the #2 QB for the Broncos, Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow? And will Tebow get any playing time. Just another little something to check-in on for week one of the NFL season.
And in possibly the game of the week, Phily hosts Green Bay in the start of the Kevin Kolb era. The Packers looked unstoppable on offense in the preseason, will that continue? Can Kevin Kolb utilize the young weapons he has on the outside in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin and succeed, or will the pressure to perform in Phily be too much? And the bigger question for Phily fans, can the defense get some pressure on Rodgers or will he pick them apart and march up and down the field?
Entering week one there are always more questions then answers, and that’s what the next few weeks will do for us, answer questions. In the meantime, at least for the next 48 hours, every team thinks they got a shot to do something special this year, and come January half of them will be disappointed. But it is the journey that is going to be the most exciting part. So enjoy the start of the NFL season, and check back next week where we’ll have more answers to all these questions.
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